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Latest population projections published

Published: Thursday, 2nd June 2016

The Office for National Statistics latest population projections indicate a larger and increasingly ageing UK population…

The ONS has published its 2014-based Population Projections and the accompanying Sub-National Population Projections.

These indicate a larger and increasingly ageing UK population compared to the 2012 projections. The fastest projected growth is in London, the South East and the East of England regions. Assumed net migration accounts for 51 per cent of the increase.

The ONS population projections will provide the basis for the new DCLG 2014-based household projections which are expected next month (July).

In the meantime inspectors examining local plans will expect local planning authorities to explain to what extent they have taken the new population projections into account when assessing their housing need.

The UK population is projected to increase by 9.7 million over the next 25 years (2014-2039) from an estimated 64.6 million in mid-2014 to 74.3 million by mid-2039.

For England, the population is projected to increase by 9.0 million from 2014 to 2039. England, therefore, accounts for a large part of the overall population increase. This is 0.6 per cent higher than the projection in the previous 2012 Population Projection.

The population is projected to continue ageing. The average (median) age will rise from 40.0 years in 2014 to 40.9 years in mid-2014 and 42.9 by mid-2039. By then more than one in 12 of the population is projected to be aged 80 or over.

The areas experiencing the fastest population growth are London, the South East and the East of England regions.

In terms of the 2012 Sub-National Populations Projections all but 11 local authorities are projected to grow in population over the next 25 years. Just over 55 per cent of local authorities are expected to grow to a greater extent than previously projected.

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Roger Milne