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Latest updated housing projection estimates published

Published: Thursday, 21st July 2016

Updated 2014-based sub-national household projections published by the Office for National Statistics and the Department for Communities and Local Government…

The latest updated household projection figures for England which will provide a new ‘starting point’ when establishing the objectively assessed need (OAN) for housing in local plans has been published by the Office for National Statistics and the Department for Communities and Local Government.

Across England, the 2014-based SNHP show that 210,000 households will form every year until 2039. This highlights the widely acknowledged gap between the level of housing projected to be needed and new housing completions across England. The projections illustrate that this gap between the homes that are needed and those delivered is significant and shows no signs of abating, commented planning consultancy Turley.

Average household size is projected to fall from 2.35 in 2014 to 2.21 in 2039. One person households are projected to increase by 68,000 per year, about one third (33 per cent) of the total household growth up to 2039.

Households headed by someone aged 65 or over are projected to increase by 155,000 per year, about three quarters (74 per cent) of total household growth up to 2039.

Added Turley “As has been debated at numerous local plan examinations since the publication of the interim 2011-based SNHP dataset, the latest projections continue to assume lower household formation rates for younger households.

“Whilst this is identified as being representative of longer-term trends, it cannot be detached from the factors which have influenced the operation of the housing market over the last 15 years. This includes a sustained national failure to deliver enough homes to meet need, an intensifying affordability crisis and growing evidence of younger households being excluded from the housing market.”

View the live tables on household projections

View the news article from Turley

Roger Milne